The confusions

People are bad at predicting the future.

Past performance is not related to future behaviour.

But we still look for examples of past performance in order to understand what behaviours to expect in the future.

Humans are pattern matching creatures who correlate unrelated events.

Easy metrics are often used to try to understand behaviour.

Short term patterns are used to predict long term behaviour.

Applying patterns to different settings doesn’t provide predictability.

We like to maintain the status quo . Because it offers less of a threat than change.

We make bad decisions because of that fear.

Potential is a better indicator of future behaviour. And potential comes from attitude, which is indoctrination and environment.

If we realise how bad we are at predicting the future we’ll stop looking at the false clues and look at the ones that truly matter.